Exclusively for the Bucks Free Press, one of the best known housing market economists in the industry has produced a forecast showing what’s in the stars for the house market in Buckinghamshire over the next four years.

Prices in the county have risen one per cent this year.

The outlook for 2019 is a 1.5 per cent fall.

After that, if the predictions are right, property values in Bucks will be heading back to the sunlit uplands. Local prices are expected to rise 5.25 per cent between 2020 and 2022.

In this week’s report for the BFP, freelance consultant Fionnuala Earley, recently appointed head of market insight for SellMyHome and RentMyHome.co.uk says the outlook on the home front in Bucks is inextricably linked to which way the wind is blowing in London. Even so local factors still play a big part.

For commuters, the proximity to London and good transport links to the capital and other main cities will continue to be an obvious incentive to live in Bucks.

The ability to hop on a train at a local station or get on the motorway network and be at your place of work in the City, Milton Keynes, Oxford or Birmingham in a realistic time frame will always be cause enough to buy a place here.

Ms Earley’s market forecast reveals another consideration for Londoners moving out of the capital and that’s the differential between house prices in Bucks and like for like in the capital.

The economist states: “Average prices in Bucks are now about 84 per cent of the London average compared with 94 per cent four years ago.

“Like the capital, house prices in the county have increased, rapidly fuelled by investment, demand and low interest rates. This has affected affordability badly.

“Latest data from ONS [Office for National Statistics] shows prices in Bucks are rising at 0.4 per cent compared with last year, against a fall of 0.5 per cent in the capital over the same period. In addition, the weakening of sentiment about housing markets in the shadow of Brexit are having an effect as are the changes in taxation. Higher stamp duty for property over about £1 million is still having an impact on demand as is the three per cent surcharge on second homes buyers and buy-to-let landlords.

“Looking ahead, the market [in Bucks] is set to see some downward adjustment to prices in 2019.

Average house prices in the county increased one per cent this year compared with a rise of 1.8 per cent across the UK and a fall of 0.75 per cent in London.

Next year, prices across the country will be in the doldrums according to the economist’s forecast. In line with the rest of the south east, prices in Bucks will inch back 1.5 per cent. Prices in London will drop a further two per cent.

Fionnuala Earley sums up the forecast: “The outlook is for price growth to begin to recover from the end of 2020 as the UK economy adjusts to life outside the European Union and the gap between buyer and seller expectations is narrowed.”

*Government figures show the number of affordable homes added to the supply in England climbed to 47,355 in 2017-18, up 12 per cent on the previous year.

The stock of affordable new builds also inched up a bit from 23 per cent 12 months earlier to 24 per cent.